5 Facts Everyone Should Know About Russia and Ukraine
5 Facts Everyone Should Know
About Russia and Ukraine
It is feared that a conflict could break out in Ukraine triggered by the concentration of Russian troops near the border with its neighbor.
By Roberto R. Díaz Blanco
Why does Russia want to invade Ukraine?
After Russia, Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe by area, and both share a land border. Although Ukraine enjoyed a brief period of independence between 1918 and 1920, it later joined the Soviet Union, which collapsed in 1991. Since then, Ukraine has enjoyed full political independence. A history of foreign invasions, from the Mongols to Nazi Germany, has made many in Russia want a wall of buffer states, including Ukraine, surrounding the country.
While the United States and OTAN view Ukraine's independence as a positive for the Ukrainian people, Russia continues to build its forces around Ukraine; the prospect of a broader war there is dire to contemplate, and the West continues to threaten dire consequences. if they cross the border.
Why is Europe alarmed?
The feeling of alarm in Europe is also spreading in the civil arena, given the unforeseeable consequences of an armed conflict in a country the size of Ukraine, which is also a key player in supplying Russian gas to Western markets.
Brussels and Washington have intensified contacts in recent hours to coordinate a response to avoid an energy crisis in Europe by chance or caused by the Kremlin.
The Cabinet of Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, has assumed in recent hours the coordination with the US both for the imposition of sanctions against Russia in the event of an attack on Ukraine and to mitigate the possible consequences for Europe, especially in the energy field.
Von der Leyen informed his Western allies, during the videoconference organized by US President Joe Biden, of the efforts being made to increase the supply of liquefied natural gas to Europe, in anticipation of a possible Russian gas cut.
The EU also fears the migratory repercussions of an armed clash within Ukraine.
In 2014, when Moscow seized Crimea and encouraged separatism in the Donbas region, hundreds of thousands of people emigrated to Poland, where an estimated 1.4 million Ukrainians live.
A new aggression by Moscow against Ukraine could cause between 1.7 million and 8 million people to leave the country, according to a recent study, depending on the territory occupied by Russian troops.
Is a diplomatic solution possible?
Diplomats speak of an "exit ramp," a way for all sides to get out of the way of war.
The West could persuade President Putin to back down by making him fear he would support a military insurgency in Ukraine, miring him in a costly war for years.
Under this narrative, the West would also have to allow Putin to claim a diplomatic victory, presenting himself as a peaceful protagonist who has been unwilling to respond militarily to OTAN provocations.
Putin could claim that he had finally got the West's attention and that its leaders were addressing what they called their "legitimate security concerns."
Western powers have made it clear that they will not compromise fundamental principles, such as Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity; their right to seek membership in OTAN, which must have an "open door" to any country that wishes to join.
But if say, OTAN missile deployments were to be significantly reduced, that might alleviate at least some Russian concerns.
Ukraine and Russia could revive the Minsk agreements, which was a package of provisions negotiated in 2014 and 2015 in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, with the aim of ending the war between government forces and Russian-backed rebels in the eastern Ukraine.
Moscow disagrees, saying Donetsk and Luhansk, the pro-Russian regions in conflict, should have a say in Ukraine's foreign policy and thus a veto over OTAN membership.
Therefore, agreement and popular support in Ukraine are unlikely.
Could Ukraine be persuaded to adopt some sort of neutrality?
There have been reports, later denied, that French officials suggested Ukraine could take Finland as a model.
In theory, it could satisfy Putin's wish that Ukraine never joins OTAN.
But would Ukraine support this? Probably not, because neutrality would effectively leave Ukraine open to Russian influence.
Neutrality would be a great concession for Kiev, which would have to abandon its Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
Is it possible that the current confrontation continues, but that its intensity diminishes over time?
Perhaps Russia could slowly withdraw its troops to the barracks, declaring its exercises over.
But at the same time, a lot of military equipment could be left behind, just in case.
Ukraine would continue to fight. But at least there would be no full-scale war. And slowly the confrontation would fade from the headlines and rejoin the long list of frozen conflicts fading from public attention.
And meanwhile, Ukraine's politics and economy would continue to be destabilized by the constant threat from Russia.
Final Notes
The fear in Kiev is that Ukraine is the country with the most commitments. The calculation, however, is whether the threat of devastating conflict is real and if so, what could be done to prevent it.
The only vestige of hope at this point is that all sides still seem willing to talk, albeit to no avail. And the longer people keep talking, the longer the diplomatic door to a solution, albeit a cracked one will remain open.
None of the options being considered are easy or likely. They all involve commitment.
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